In some ways, it is a measure of the victory of Thaksin Shinawatra and the Thai Rak Thai party that the forthcoming general election, if it is held, will be fought according to the policies he introduced. The principal parties who will contest the election look set to vie with each other in making promises to the rural poor whom Thaksin mobilized to achieve three extraordinary democratic victories. In place of Thai Rak Thai’s one million cow project, the People’s Power Party will promise two million cows. Even the right-wing Democrat party, led somnolently by workshy quisling Abhisit Vejjajiva, is likely to announce a few policies in addition to its customary personality and money politics approach. The Democrats will win the seats in its heartlands in the south and in Bangkok but may make some progress in the north, although scarcely in the crucial northeastern region of Isaan.
The Democrats will be faced by the PPP – the People’s Power Party which is seeking to establish itself as the successor to Thai Rak Thai and to collect seats in that Isaan region which formed its base – the Thai courts banned 111 leading Thai Rak Thai politicians from politics for five years in May this year in an unexpected decision. It is illegal for someone living in the country to criticize a decision made by the Thai courts. However, in addition to these two parties and the four or five smaller ones which will also compete largely on the basis of personality and the deployment of government resources to local interests, a new party has been created. This is called Pae Pandin or Motherland party, which is planning to campaign on a platform of defending religion and the monarchy and ‘nation-building.’ This of course will strongly appeal to the junta leaders who are also plotting ways to ensure they will not be prosecuted if a truly-democratically elected government comes into power (which is not very likely). It is anticipated that military interest will ally with this party in one way or another. More interesting, perhaps, is that large factions of the Thai Rak Thai party have also defected to Pae Pandin and are expected to be able to deliver a number of seats – now that Thai Rak Thai (no innocents themselves) have been banned, ideology is missing from politics and vote-buying is, according to many rumous, rife. The cost of a seat in parliament is said to be 40 million baht (approximately US$1.2 million).
