Thailand's 23rd December 2007 general election led to the widely-predicted victory for the People's Power Party. But, short of an overall majority, can a coalition arise?

The results of the general election held here in Thailand on December 23rd are now more or less established. The results were predictable and, indeed, widely-predicted. The largest party was the People’s Power Party (PPP), which is seen as an ally of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, Thailand’s most successful electoral politician who was ousted by a military coup in September, 2006. The PPP has won 233 (subject to final confirmation) of the 480 total seats in the newly-established House of Parliament. That means the party is just short of an overall majority (which only Thaksin Shinawatra, leader of his now-banned Thai Rak Thai party has ever achieved). Attention will be focused over the next days and weeks, therefore, on the horse-trading necessary before either the PPP or the next largest party, the Democrats, can establish a working coalition.

It is easy, temptingly easy, to view the election as a straight fight between the former democratically-elected government and the proponents and quislings of the junta. Indeed, it was on this basis that the PPP leader Samak Sundaravej established his manifesto. Voting patterns across the Kingdom tend to support such a division. In the poverty-stricken and populous north and northeast, voters turned out for the PPP by as high a proportion as 70%. Meanwhile, in the capital city Bangkok and in its traditional heartland in the South, the Democrats almost swept the board. In other parts of the country, notably the central region where most of the productive rice-growing is located, the vote appears to be split evenly between the two sides. Breakdowns by gender and by age are not currently available and may never, in fact, be completely available, owing to problems with technical capacity within the National Statistical Office.

However, such a straight division is somewhat misleading. Firstly, the victory of Thai Rak Thai in electoral terms meant that every single significant party in the election fought on the same basis of populist redistribution (although it is arguable how many of them actually intend to act upon such policies). Secondly, all kinds of rumours are as ever circulating of behind the scenes machinations, featuring noted Head of the Privy Council General Prem Tinsulanonda, whose role in the coup is generally believed to have been decisive – although the General forcibly rejects any such claims. Further rumours surround the extent to which the military will be prepared to accept a PPP government which has already threatened to strip junta ringleaders of their self-awarded immunity to prosecution. However, the junta-appointed National Legislative Assembly, which has acted as a ‘parliament’ for junta initiatives, is due to form the next Senate and will surely block any Constitutional changes deemed unfavourable to the junta and its many cronies.