Divisions among the Thai military junta are emerging. Is this a response to the threat of future jail sentences? Is it to prevent an election? Rumour says so.
In the absence of free speech and media capable of probing beyond the obviously banal and untrue, rumour dominates the world of those seeking to understanding politics. Background briefings, unattributable sources and guesswork are essential skills in trying to make sense of latest events. Prosecutors have flown off to London, for example, with a view to starting extradition proceedings against democratically elected prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, on the grounds of corruption allegations that were used a pretext by the military junta to launch the September 19th, 2006 coup. Yet the case on which the prosecutors have travelled has already been dropped back in Bangkok and, if one thing is clear, it is that the junta will under no circumstances permit Mr Thaksin to return, for fear of the spontaneous uprising that would sweep them from power. How might this be explained? Clearly, the administration does not all work together. Recently, indeed, leading junta cronies have started to turn on each other, now that they are not getting the division of spoils that they had anticipated receiving.
Two leading generals, one of them appointed by the junta to become ‘prime minister,’ General Surayud Chulanont, have now taking to arguing in public. General Surayud is accused of illegally holding land in the National Park at Khao Yai. General Surayud says he bought the land before it had been designated a National Park, from a Mr Pao, and it was his wife involved and he used to be a ‘jon’ (bandit) in the past but everything is different these days. Other generals, notably General Saprang who once admitted the true motives for the coup, are circling to protect their necks. It has become very likely that, if a general election is held on December 23rd as scheduled, that the winner of the largest number of seats, the People’s Power Party (PPP) (successor to Thaksin’s Thai Rak Thai party, which was somewhat unexpectedly completely dissolved by the courts for electoral irregularities despite being the most successful and effective government in the history of Thailand). It is also rumoured that the PPP leadership have taken amnesty off the table – the junta inserted an amnesty clause for themselves in the new constitution they had written. If that is to be removed – as rumour has it – then the chief henchmen will need to secure influence for themselves to protect their necks against prison or death penalties. General Sonthi Boonyaratkalin, who headed the junta, has already managed to inveigle himself into the position of Deputy Prime Minister. Is it possible that the generals are fighting among themselves so as to find another pretext to postpone the election? Again, another rumour says so.
