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What has happened to Thai politics since the military coup of September 19th, 2006? Will there be democratic elections and, if so, who will win?
The military coup in September 2006 brought to an end the most successful period of democratic government in Thai history. Not only was the Thai Rak Thai party led by Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra the first to be elected and serve a full term, it was then re-elected and served a second term and was then elected for a third time. The third election was subsequently annulled as the opposition parties had decided to collude with mega-rich media tycoon Sondhi Limthongkul and his sponsored street demonstrations rather than compete in democratic politics (a technicality in the positioning of electoral booths was identified as the reason for annulling the election, in typical Thai style). Thaksin’s great achievement was to construct a robust political coalition that combined those who had for decades been excluded from a share of government – the rural poor, the largely ethnic Chinese business community and the working classes. Although in government some parts of this coalition inevitably fell by the wayside, Thai Rak Thai was still a potent and viable source for social change in Thailand at the time of the coup – Thailand is the only country in East Asia to have significantly reduced income inequality between rich and poor in the twenty-first century, because of the redistributional polices of Thai Rak Thai, including the provision of low cost health care for the poor and the promotion of regional development. However, those days are gone. A court decision under the rule of the military junta forcibly dissolved Thai Rak Thai and barred Thaksin and other leaders from politics for five years. The junta appointed an assembly to serve in lieu of a parliament – it was popularly known as ‘old ginger’ because it was dominated by rich men keen on returning the country to the status quo before Thai Rak Thai. The assembly has cobbled together a new constitution which will be voted for in a referendum later this month. The junta and its appointed prime minister General Surayud Chulanont has spent much of the year attempting to persuade people they can have democratic elections before the end of the year, so long as the new constitution is passed. The new constitution absolves the junta of its acts and allows for appointed rather than elected senators, as well as other contentious issues. It had been expected that any election would yield a weak coalition of right wing interests and personality politicians that had dominated Thailand prior to Thai Rak Thai. However, 300 ex-Thai Rak Thai representatives have just joined the previously little known but legally registered party Palang Prachachon. It remains to be seen whether they have time to create a coherent manifesto of policies.
The copyright of the article Post Coup Thai Politics in Thailand is owned by John Walsh. Permission to republish Post Coup Thai Politics in print or online must be granted by the author in writing.
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